COVID-19 Mitigation Measures, Economic Impact and Factors in Recovery
Volume 34, Issue 2 (2021), pp. 179–190
Pub. online: 4 August 2022
Type: Article
Open Access
Open Access
Published
4 August 2022
4 August 2022
Abstract
The purpose of the paper is to analyse various factors influencing the speed of recovery and the return to the Old Normal, i.e., GDP
levels of 2019 Q4. Most countries have imposed strong Covid-19 containment measures. The research paper reveals various implications
of the Covid-19 mitigation policies on GDP growth, the budget deficit and the increase in the outstanding public debt. The
analysis will show various correlations between the stringency of containment measures and the mobility of the population and the
relationship with the decrease in GDP. It concludes that the size of the fiscal response is important, but does not guarantee immediate
recovery. Besides monetary and fiscal policy, there are also other important elements, such as the strictness of the containment
measures, the size of the tourism sector, the size of the outstanding pre-crisis debt level, and the quality of governance, which for
many countries warrants a smaller decline in GDP. The paper concludes that countries with, on average, less stringent containment
measures, with less accumulated pre-crisis public debt, a smaller tourism sector and more efficient governance, tend to have a smaller
GDP slowdown and smaller budget deficits, and will recover sooner to pre-crisis levels.